Sports and Risk Perception

This is an astonishing example of public risk perception.  The public health advice is also shocking.

Soer, who was present when the study was done and is knowledgeable of the findings, gave some simple advice on how to avoid any danger.

"Wear earplugs to the games," she said. "Either buy them at a pharmacy or make them yourselves and take it with you to the soccer games.

make them yourself... ? And this comes from a medical doctor?
I don't know what Communication Pathology is.  I infer from their limited website it is infectious diseases.  One of study foci was transmission of disease by sharing horns, so I understand a pathologist being involved.  But she obviously isn't familiar with how ear plugs work.  Does she think a wad of cotton is going to help?  Or is there some common item South Africans use for this purpose?

With poor risk communication from professionals, it is unsurprising that individuals are not making optimum choices.

"I am not worried," said Matthew M'Crystal, a 24-year-old law student. "Anyway, it won't kill us."

The chronic excuse:  'it won't kill me'.  Well, one of these days, being a lawyer, he's going to decide to sue someone over his noise-induced hearing loss by claiming "But I didn't know it was bad for me!"


"I could have died in Mexico," said Ricardo Avila, a 56-year-old soccer fan visiting South Africa for the tournament. "So no, it does not bother me."

Here is a different problem with individual risk perception.  Even when you give a perfectly clear explanation of the risks of exposure, and the employee really does understand it ... her risk comparison may be standardized against something other than yours.

"You have a 1:100 probability of losing your hearing"
"Yes, but I live in the area of town with the highest crime rate, gang activity and there was a drive-by shooting on my block last night.  Losing my hearing isn't so bad."

There will be a few more posts about noise and the World Cup.

I think I might borrow a noise meter from the U's IH lab to see how loud it gets on Saturday during the Germany-Argentina game over at the Glockenspiel in StPl.  I'm considering playing hookey with my spouse on Friday to watch the Brazil-Netherlands game.  Maybe I can compare the two?  Get a publication?  lol
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Myth (the myth of objective educated opinions)

Myths pervade even public health. Yesterday's Midmorning program had as guests professors of

infectious diseases @ Mayo

public health professor @ Pitt, and

pediatrics @ Indiana U.

Public health officials are trying to figure out why a majority of Americans, including many public health nurses and doctors, have told pollsters recently they are wary of the H1N1 vaccine. Wary to the point that they're not sure they will get the shot against H1N1 flu. A look at medical myths and what fuels the fear of vaccines.

This I need to hear. My opinion, prior to doing so, is that medical & public health officials are

a) inadequately educated about vaccines & how they are made

b) subject to the ignorance of peer-education. Rather than peer pressure, this is peer pressure exerting influence about facts. If all of my patients/clients believe it, it must be true.

Pilgrimage & Polio

Saudi Arabia: Pilgrims Who Travel to Mecca This Fall Will Get an Oral Polio Vaccine on Arrival By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. Published: September 28, 2009 New York Times Saudi Arabia has announced that everyone arriving for the annual pilgrimage to Mecca in November will have to swallow a dose of oral polio vaccine under the eyes of health officials. The kingdom has become more and more aggressive in its fight against polio, which has hovered on the brink of eradication for years. Until recently, the Saudi authorities asked for proof of vaccination when pilgrims applied for visas and forcibly vaccinated only those arriving from countries where polio was endemic. In New York last week, the country’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, and Ted Turner, the cable television billionaire and chairman of the United Nations Foundation, announced that Saudi Arabia would donate $30 million toward global polio eradication. While that is only a small contribution to the $6.1 billion spent over the last 20 years, it is symbolically important. Polio is endemic in only four countries: Pakistan, Afghanistan and regions of Nigeria and India with a Muslim majority. It persists largely because of a persistent rumor that the vaccine is a Western plot to sterilize Muslim girls. Each year, travelers from endemic countries seed outbreaks in other poor countries, where vaccination drives had been dropped when the disease was thought to have been eliminated. In some years, it has reached Saudi Arabia, where millions of pilgrims live close together in tent cities for the holy week.

Less = more?

Fewer mosquitos!!!! Yea!!! Lower risk of bug-borne infectious diseases? uh, probably No risk? unfortunately, no. I have taken advantage of the opportunity to sit in the front yard in the evenings and simply enjoy the utterly delightful weather we've been having this Summer. It is, quite honestly, the nicest Summer weather I can recall in my adult life; it's definitely the nicest since we've moved here to the Mosquito State.

The plague all over again

BBC is reporting an outbreak of bubonic plague in Lybia. I'm in the midst of reading Camus' The Plague. I was inspired to read it by the conspiracy idiots (read: FBI) reports after the anthrax-letters in '01. The reports stated one of the suspects was extra suspicious due to his collection of books in his office. Quite a few of which are sitting on my shelf. The Plague, however, I hadn't read. Maybe it will make me suspicious (since in 2001 I had access to lots of anthrax)? The book is well written and interesting so far.

MDR Malaria?

An on-going concern about long-term disease control or eradication is the development of resistance to various control mechanisms, such as antibiotics Malaysia is reporting malarial parasites developing resistance to antibiotics.

And in those earlier cases, resistance also started in Western Cambodia, and in a similar way.

No-one is sure why this area seems to have become a nursery for anti-malaria drug resistance.

One factor could be the inappropriate use of drugs, related to a lack of medical supervision.

The public health system is weak. Government clinics often run out of drugs or may be closed when patients want access to them.

Sure, I'm biased after working for an American pharmaceutical firm and dealing with the obsessive compulsive regieme of the FDA. [after being in the hospital and staring at a bag of solution being pumped straight into my body - that will make you change your mind about how good it is for document control and quality assurance.] But really - this is beyond the pale of people here:

All pharmacies are supposed to be licensed. But the stallholder told me he didn't have a licence. He'd applied for one, he said, but the paperwork had never been processed.

Many others running pharmacies, he said, were in the same position.

I watched him and his wife make up their own packets of drugs on the glass-topped counter, shaking a variety of coloured tablets into unlabelled plastic bags.

Herpes exposure control

New drug may [great science word] prevent transmission of herpes virus. great for infectious disease prevention ... i'd be curious as to whether the majority of herpes cases are due to casual sex vs. long-term partner sex. An estimated one in five Americans have genital herpes, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while 100 million have HSV-1. okay, class - which is bigger? 1 in 5 or 100 million? I doubt they actually expect the average person reading this to know the current population. Which is, according to the U.S. Census Bureau 306 million ∴ 1 in 3 have HSV-1 Why not write: An estimated one in five americans have genital herpes,..., while one in three have HSV-1. ~or~ An estimated 60 million Americans have genital herpes,..., while 100 million have HSV-1. Perhaps they (reasonably) fear Jane Doe will think 1 in 3 is smaller than 1 in 5? Maybe they don't really want me to know how many people have HSV-2? Or perhaps they just don't really want me to know anything, such as: An estimated 1 in five Americans have genital herpes,..., while the number with HSV-1 is about one and a half times higher.